Crucial Area for Gold

Gold in the area between 1170-1200 is the crucial area. 1172.30 is the 61.8% retracement of the prior up move. Above 1200 and especially above 50% retracement of 1211.5, then the uptrend should continue. Wait and see if gold breaks up or down from this area.

2016-11-29_gc

Median term target

With a breakout and new all time high, the path of least resistance now is up. SPX 2290 area is my next median term target.

Short term, es has pullback 25 points when counting Friday’s after hours action while SPX has pulled back only 13 by Friday’s close. This may be all we get until the next pullback at ES 2180. Either way, I plan to add to my long positions on Monday.

SPX weekly: target 2290 area (yellow dot).

 

ES hourly: almost perfect touch of 31.8% retracement, with a target of 2183.50. Measured move with Wave 1 = Wave 5 target (not shown) is at 2179.50.

 
On larger measured move targets, I have es 2188.25.

Measured move targets

ES/SPX only managed a small 12-13 point pullback instead of a 25-30 point pullback. On the ES, the measure move has a 78.6% target at 2168, which was reached this morning. The next target is 100% at 2175.75, where I’d be watching for a more substantial pullback if 2168 is not the local top and es continues higher.

 

SPX monthly candle, June 2016

I posted this comment on Tony Caldaro’s site after 6/30 monthly close. Now that he shut down the comments area, I’m copying my post here:

I have to say the monthly candle looks very bullish. I searched for a monthly candle that looked like this and I found two in the last 20 years.

June 2016 candle is similar to Jan. 1998 candle: the high was higher than that of the prior month; the low was lower than that of the prior month; the month closed above the close of the prior month; month closed above open; It just so happens that 3-4 candles ago the SPX bottomed with a long red candle in both 1997-1998 and 2016. In 1998, market continued up but did come back to nearly test the lows of Jan. 1998 9 months later.

Another monthly candle that is also similar is the candle of April 2014: higher than prior monthly higher, lower than prior month low; closed higher than last month; closed higher than open; 2 monthly candles ago, market bottomed (but with a long, green vs. red candle). Market continued higher in April 2014 as well but likewise came back to nearly test the April 2014 lows 6 months later due to Ebola  fears.

If I ignore fundamentals and just look at monthly chart, it appears to me the market would continue up for months (with pullbacks along the way of course); but SPX 2000 area won’t be revisited until perhaps 1 year later. (April 2014: 2 candles from the bottom, revisited near the lows 6 months later; Jan. 1998: 3 candles from the bottom, revisited near the lows 9 months later; June 2016: 4 candles from the bottom, due to revisit near the lows in perhaps 12 months.) This is purely based on similarities to Jan 1998 and April 2014 monthly candles only.

SPX short term resistance at 2155

SPX has reached it’s near term target of 2135. The resistance level now is at the upper median line at around 2155. After that, the measured move target is SPX 2191 and the iH&S on the hourly gives a target of about 2230. Sounds incredible so we’ll see if those targets can be reached.

ES target 2133 and beyond

The red fork has lost control and green fork upper median line is at es 2133 area. That would be the immediate upside target. It does not look like this will be the top. There is a measured move target at ES 2189. Immediate resistance is at the trendline (blue line), at approximately 2130.